50% by PV in 2050 a reality?

The total installed PV capacity in the world at the end of 2011 was 70GW as per REN21.
The latest report from IMS Research show that about 31 GW new capacity will be added this year.
So, by 2012 we will be at 100 GW world PV capacity.

If we do a quick back of enevelope calculation (although I used an excel sheet for the same):

1) The world power demand today is about 16 TW (16,000 GW) and lets say, if we do our Energy Efficiency bit, it may double (instead of tripling) to around 30 TW by 2050

2) To supply 50% of this requirement by PV means we should have 15TW supplied by PV and taking a capacity factor of 20%, we need 75 TWp (75,000 GWp) PV capacity installed by 2050 in the world.

3) Based on past few years (2009-2012), the average capacity growth rate has been about 64%, but one can argue that this was just too exceptional and may not be the same in the future.

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shivanshtyagi

Mechanical engineer with experience in Power Plant maintenance , operation and auditing for ISI marked products. MBA in Power Management from National Power Training Institute, Faridabad. Working as Consultant for Bridge to India Pvt. Ltd. Expertise in: 1) Power sector regulations 2) Financial Modelling 3) Project Development solar PV plants 4) Strategic consulting 5) Report writing

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