Faulty Mechanism of calculating Power Deficit

Mr. Naveen Singh,  India Electron Exchange

India’s overall power consumption is just around one fifth of China even though the two countries have broadly the same population now. China until last year claimed itself to be deficit in power even when its installed capacity was roughly 10 Lakh MW more than of India. On the contrary, we with a total installed capacity of less than 2.5 Lakh MW of which the average serviced load is just close to 1.25 Lakh MW, reportedly have a Peak Power Deficit of just 3.3% (As per CEA report for Feb’2014). As per the same report, 10 of 16 states in Northern & Western Region had either no power deficit or a power deficit of less than 0.5%.

These numbers raise serious doubt over the methodology adopted for calculation of Power Deficit. The numbers on one hand can be manipulated by willfully changing the Power Requirement number to show lower deficit, while on the other hand misleads investors & analysts by portraying a scenario of fictitious surplus. The deficit calculation formula thus needs to be debated in public with CERC taking cognizance of these facts, as creating a healthy environment for power market development lies with CERC.

It becomes even more interesting when we notice that Delhi & Bihar have roughly the same Peak Deficit (4.4% & 4.6% respectively), where per capita consumption in Bihar is just 133.6 Units/Year against 1586.7 Units/Year for Delhi. Moreover, except for three states, every state in Western, Eastern & North-Eastern region has Peak Deficit lower than of Delhi, where power supply is almost 24X7.

The scenario of sharing unpalatable numbers related to Power Requirement/Deficit is similar in almost every state and interestingly is not such a hidden fact, but with the most premier agency accepting whatever is shared by the states without posing an objection for years together is bizarre. It is further amplified when the same numbers are used as the most authentic numbers for almost every critical analysis of the Indian Power Scenario without even being critical about the numbers themselves.

A sacrosanct formula thus needs to be floated to come-up with the actual power deficit in each state. The State Regulatory Commissions also need to then act to ensure that the real consumer issues like this are not only highlighted properly but also monitored critically.

Naveen Singh

India Electron Exchange

Mob: +91 – 7838592510

Email: naveen@indiaelectron.com

www.indiaelectron.com

About the Author

Naveen carries an experience of almost 8 years in the Indian Power Sector. Over this period he has worked with various power market players, however the experience has revolved around Distribution Efficiency Improvement (Power Procurement Planning & Optimization, AT&C Loss Reduction, Process Improvements & Financial Turnaround) on one hand and developing the Best Online Power Analytics platform to facilitate Power Trading on the other

About India Electron Exchange

India Electron Exchange (IEE) is a pioneer in Power Market Analytics in India. Through our wide range of services and absolute coverage of the power market, it provides an ideal platform for every organizations looking at any form of Power Market Analysis to help them get a better feel of the Indian Power Sector before taking any contractual decision related to sale, purchase, trade or banking of power.

IEE is positioned to cater to all the historical & real-time market analysis needs with its various service offerings and the wide range of analytical outputs. We have been contributing towards enhancing the commercial bottom lines by offering cutting edge market information – as it happens, while making sure that there is enough room for custom analysis based on your specific requirement.

It is because of this that our clients not only include the key Power Traders but also one of the biggest Power Distribution Companies, Big/Small Generators, SLDCs, Regulatory Commissions and even Investment Banks that have interest in the power business in India. Thus, within a very short time frame we have been able to create a niche, purely on account of the Specialized Value Added Services we provide to our clients, which gives them a cutting edge in the extremely competitive and dynamic power market.

Share

You may also like...

5 Responses

  1. Gagan Shrivastav says:

    You are right Mr. Naveen, but I think CEA is talking about restricted demand, as electricity has not reach to remote rural area and also DISCOMs are adopting load management techniques such as feeder separation, load shedding etc., that why deficit appearing to be lower than actual. Also we will not get clear idea about actual demand and deficit until and unless grid has been extended to remote rural area and every consumer is supplied as per their requirement.

    • chandu says:

      Naveen has not suggested any new method which can capture yet to be unconnected load, which may lead to realistic figures.

  2. S. K. JOHAR says:

    The CEA figures have all along been not trust worthy, Til about 16th EPS published CEA has been projecting a huge deficit whereas the situation on the ground was not so, due to the artificially throttled demand created by the low paying capacity of the SEBs who were resorting to measures load shedding and cutting of power supply to certain areas. The generating companies like NTPC had been suffering low PLF due to low schedules. The industrial and manufacturing sector have slowed down . Thus the situation projected is all artificial when the normal rate of growth is sluggish. Once the industrial and manufacturing sector starts picking up and the domestic consumer starts getting power the deficit will increase enormously .

    The present day forecasts and the status are just the figures suppressed activity

  3. S. K. JOHAR says:

    Further to my comments a few minutes back.

    The difference is that earlier CEA used to project high deficit which was actually low due to ground situations prevalent , now the CEA’s projected deficit is on lower side but actual situation with Industrial and Manufacturing activity and the domestic consumption due to new connections picking up any slow down in augmentation in generation capacity is bound to put limitations to our our generation

  4. Vijay Barthwal says:

    CEA data does not shows Gujarat or Chhatissgarh as surplus, when many generating stations are backdown, in the monthly power supply position. How to explain this?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*