Faulty Mechanism of calculating Power Deficit
Mr. Naveen Singh, India Electron Exchange
India’s overall power consumption is just around one fifth of China even though the two countries have broadly the same population now. China until last year claimed itself to be deficit in power even when its installed capacity was roughly 10 Lakh MW more than of India. On the contrary, we with a total installed capacity of less than 2.5 Lakh MW of which the average serviced load is just close to 1.25 Lakh MW, reportedly have a Peak Power Deficit of just 3.3% (As per CEA report for Feb’2014). As per the same report, 10 of 16 states in Northern & Western Region had either no power deficit or a power deficit of less than 0.5%.
These numbers raise serious doubt over the methodology adopted for calculation of Power Deficit. The numbers on one hand can be manipulated by willfully changing the Power Requirement number to show lower deficit, while on the other hand misleads investors & analysts by portraying a scenario of fictitious surplus. The deficit calculation formula thus needs to be debated in public with CERC taking cognizance of these facts, as creating a healthy environment for power market development lies with CERC.
It becomes even more interesting when we notice that Delhi & Bihar have roughly the same Peak Deficit (4.4% & 4.6% respectively), where per capita consumption in Bihar is just 133.6 Units/Year against 1586.7 Units/Year for Delhi. Moreover, except for three states, every state in Western, Eastern & North-Eastern region has Peak Deficit lower than of Delhi, where power supply is almost 24X7.
The scenario of sharing unpalatable numbers related to Power Requirement/Deficit is similar in almost every state and interestingly is not such a hidden fact, but with the most premier agency accepting whatever is shared by the states without posing an objection for years together is bizarre. It is further amplified when the same numbers are used as the most authentic numbers for almost every critical analysis of the Indian Power Scenario without even being critical about the numbers themselves.
A sacrosanct formula thus needs to be floated to come-up with the actual power deficit in each state. The State Regulatory Commissions also need to then act to ensure that the real consumer issues like this are not only highlighted properly but also monitored critically.
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About the Author
Naveen carries an experience of almost 8 years in the Indian Power Sector. Over this period he has worked with various power market players, however the experience has revolved around Distribution Efficiency Improvement (Power Procurement Planning & Optimization, AT&C Loss Reduction, Process Improvements & Financial Turnaround) on one hand and developing the Best Online Power Analytics platform to facilitate Power Trading on the other